Predicting the Academy Awards? Nobody Knows Anything

When it comes to predicting the Academy Awards, which air Sunday night at 8 p.m. on ABC, William Goldman said it best--nobody knows anything--which is why some of us age visibly and develop ulcers while trying to predict the unpredictable.

But aging and ulcers be damned! In the spirit of the season, it's time to go for it, throw caution to the wind and fearlessly predict who will win--even if this awards season hasn’t exactly been as illustrious as those in years past.

After months of picketing threats from the Writers Guild of America and the weeks of awkward awards shows that followed--whether they were truncated to the point of being worthless, as they were at the Golden Globes, or allowed to go on as usual, as they were at the televised Screen Actors Guild Awards and Critics’ Choice Awards (the latter of which, in full disclosure, I’m a voting member)--the awards season hasn’t exactly been as glimmering as some might have hoped.

On the upside, awards fatigue also isn’t as acute as it has been in previous years. Moreover, with the writers strike finally over, now the awards can go on as planned, which is important for good reason--Oscar turns 80 this year, and that’s an event any cinephile will celebrate.

Hosted by the unpredictable Jon Stewart, who will have his way with the crowd as only he can, the evening promises more tension than a celebrity facelift--which is considerable, as a glance around the seemingly air-brushed audience will confirm.

Several key races are proving difficult to call. Who knew, for instance, that "Juno" would emerge as a genuine contender for Best Picture? Or that Hal Holbrook, so good in the otherwise overlooked "Into the Wild," might prove victorious in a race many are certain will go to Javier Bardem?

It's this element of uncertainty that will give the show the spark of life it needs. After all, though some might claim otherwise, there are no shoo-ins at the Academy Awards--the voting Academy has a mind of its own, it likes to deliver its share of surprises and the only way it will be swayed by the hype is if a voter hasn’t seen the nominated movies.

One of the night’s closest races belongs to Best Picture, with the movie “There Will Be Blood” prophetically setting the tone for all that's to come.

That film is up against its chief competition, the marvelous “No Country for Old Men," as well as "Michael Clayton," "Juno” and the over-praised “Atonement.” In the real world, "There Will Be Blood" would just take them all out with a bowling pin (see the movie, folks), but right now, the groundswell of support is behind one film, “No Country for Old Men,” which to date has won nearly every award for which it's been nominated.

Given the odds stacked in its favor, it would be foolish not to predict that the winning movie will be "No Country For Old Men," so I'll predict it, though as much as I admire the movie, my heart isn’t for it to win. As I write, the likeable “Juno” is generating last-minute industry buzz and now has a shot of winning. But beyond that, nobody should count out "There Will Be Blood." With its epic sweep and great performances, it was far and away 2007's best movie. If it wins, I’ll be cheering.

Cutting through at least some of the evening's uncertainty is the award for Best Actor, with Daniel Day-Lewis nominated for his steamrolling performance as Daniel Plainview in "There Will Be Blood."

Joining him in that race is George Clooney as a beleaguered corporate "fixer" in “Michael Clayton,” Viggo Mortensen as a member of the Russian mafia in "Eastern Promises," Johnny Depp in the title role of "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," and Tommy Lee Jones as a man fighting to learn what became of his son after his tour of duty in Iraq in "In the Valley of Elah."

While Clooney is the dark horse in the race and very well could offer one of the night's several potential upsets, the award will go to Day-Lewis, whose complex performance was indeed last year's best.

The race for Best Supporting Actor comes down to two actors--Javier Bardem for "No Country for Old Men" and Hal Holbrook for "Into the Wild."

Also nominated in that category are Casey Affleck for "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," the terrific Tom Wilkinson for "Michael Clayton," and Philip Seymour Hoffman stirring up comedic trouble in Mike Nichol's "Charlie Wilson's War." Every one of these actors is deserving of their nomination, but Bardem was especially unnerving--and he was in most of the movie. I’m predicting he will win, but I’m also hoping there’s an upset and that the award will go to Holbrook, whose performance in "Into the Wild" was as moving and as honest as any in recent memory.

Since Cate Blanchett won't win Best Actress for "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" and Laura Linney won't win for "The Savages," the award comes down to three women-- Ellen Page for "Juno," Marion Cotillard for her spot-on portrayal of Edith Piaf in the otherwise flawed "La Vie en Rose," and Julie Christie as a woman suffering from Alzheimer's disease in the remarkable "Away From Her."

Page poses a threat because the real competition is between Cotillard and Christie, and they could split the vote, thus ushering in Page for a win. Still, assuming that won’t happen, how do you even choose between Cotillard and Christie? If you've seen their performances, then you know each deserves to win the Oscar. That said, since only one can win and there always has been something about Christie that gets me every time, I’ll predict that she will win--and we’ll wait to see if she does.

Hands down, the award for Best Supporting Actress is the night's greatest unknown. Nominated are Cate Blanchett for “I’m Not There,” Ruby Dee for “American Gangster,” Amy Ryan for “Gone Baby Gone,” Tilda Swinton for “Michael Clayton” and Saoirse Ronan for “Atonement.”

For simplicity's sake, let’s just take that little Ronan girl right out of the running--she was like a Satanic, beady-eyed automaton in her movie and few will get behind her. But as for the other women, well, they're in for the most ferocious fight of the night.

Amy Ryan deserves to win--that raw performance of hers was powerful and even now, all these months later, it still lingers. The majority are predicting that Blanchett will win, first because she nailed the elusive rhythms that define Bob Dylan, and second because she is nominated twice this year and the Academy might give her the lesser award. As for Ruby Dee, if she pulls off an upset--and her recent SAG win suggests she very well might--it will be an award reflective of her long career as an actor and as a social activist, and not for her brief yet scene-stealing turn in “Gangster.” And Swinton? She's so good in "Clayton," so corrupt and panicked, she easily could take this away from all of them.

So, it comes down to Dee, Ryan, Swinton and Blanchett. The first played a good mother, the second skewered bad mothers, the third stuck it hard to corporate America, the fourth cast a quirky, gender-bending gaze upon pop culture--and a pop-culture icon--itself. Prediction? In the spirit of Anton Chigurh, let's just flip a coin and go with the good mother--Ruby Dee.

In the award for Best Director, expect a fierce competition between the Coen brothers for "No Country for Old Men" and Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood." Others in the race include dark horse Julian Schnabel for his beautiful movie, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," Jason Reitman for "Juno" and Tony Gilroy for "Michael Clayton." With the Coen brothers winning the Directors Guild Award, look for them to take home the award, though I'd prefer if it went to Schnabel or Anderson.

Rounding out the evening is the race for Best Animated Picture, with “Ratatouille" and “Persepolis” pressing out the appealing “Surf’s Up.” Though "Ratatouille" was last year's best animated film and deserves to win the award--which it will--audiences should make every effort to see “Persepolis” when it arrives on DVD later this year.

Keeping in the animated vein, this time in the short film category, look for Suzie Templeton's "Peter & The Wolf" to win over Josh Raskin's "I Met the Walrus," Samuel Tourneux's "Even Pigeons Go To Heaven," Chris Lavis' anxiety-ridden "Madame Tutli-Putli," and Alexander Petrov's impressionistic "My Love."

For Best Documentary, it comes down to Michael Moore’s important film, “Sicko,” the fabulous “Taxi to the Dark Side," the Bush-slamming "No End in Sight,” as well as “War/Dance” and the moving “Operation Homecoming." Though Moore's "Sicko" has the box office, look for an upset with "No End in Sight."

In the writing categories, former stripper-cum-writer Diablo Cody will win Best Original Screenplay for "Juno" over Tamara Jenkins' “The Savages” Nancy Oliver’s “Lars and the Real Girl,” Brad Bird's "Ratatouille," and its toughest competition, Tony Gilroy’s “Michael Clayton.” The Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will go to Ethan and Joel Coen for their smashing work on "No Country for Old Men." In doing so, they will best Ronald Harwood’s “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s “There Will Be Blood,” Christopher Hampton’s stuffy “Atonement” and Sarah Polley’s excellent “Away From Her.”

Finally, up for Best Original Song are “Falling Slowly” from “Once,” “Raise it Up” from “August Rush,” and three songs from “Enchanted”--“Happy Working Song,” “That’s How You Know” and “So Close.” Look for “Falling Slowly” to win.

Or will it? When it comes to predicting the Academy Awards, remember, nobody knows anything, which is why it's good to have an Academy Awards party. Celebrating your triumphs and drowning your sorrows with good friends can almost be as entertaining as the show itself.